Shanghai!

Shanghai people speak well and intelligently, far more so than Singaporeans.  They think in far more complex terms than we do, and express their opinions readily, peppering them with examples and anecdotes.

The young people I spoke to are hungry and lean, eager for excellence in their work and willing to go the extra mile.  Service in all the shops I went to was professional to a fault.  Even in the smaller shops, once the price had been settled after a bit of haggling, the shopkeeper would follow up with dedicated service - helping me find a bigger bag to consolidate all my purchases, providing additional information, and so on.

As a city, Shanghai has fantastic night spots, catering to both the high and the low end.  Their subway system is comprehensive.

Yes, much still has to be done about standards of public behaviour.  Spitting and littering remain incredibly common.  The taxis reek of cigarette smoke, while the back alleys stink of rotten garbage.  Dingy shophouses with rusty grilles (which I suppose add to the charm of the city) still line many of the roads, which could do a bit of cleaning up. 

But in the long-run, the only edge we have over the Shanghainese is our ability to connect with the rest of the English-speaking world.  It’s a strong one, to be sure - English remains the global language of commerce and cultural exchange.  But the Chinese will catch up.  Already English is compulsory in primary school.  In cosmopolitan cities like Shanghai, the gap is probably narrower.

Singapore Complaints Choir: Making Music Out of Our Way of Life

A couple of my friends are taking part in the Singapore Complaints Choir, so here’s a shameless plug for them.  Actually I know at least one of them wouldn’t want us to turn up, but I attribute it to false modesty.

26 Jan / Saturday
3.00pm - The Chamber at The Arts House
4.00pm - Merlion Park
4.45pm - Speakers Corner
5.45pm - Front Lawn at Singapore Art Museum

27 Jan / Sunday
12 - 3pm - Recording at The Chamber at The Art House
3.00pm - Performance at The Chamber at The Arts House
4.45pm - Esplanade Waterfront Canopy
5.45pm - VivoCity Amphitheatre

Oddly enough, the idea started with the Finns and I always thought they were happy with their social compact.  Perhaps we have become truly world-class.

Pushing on a String

BernankeIf you have money invested in any stock market in the world, then you’re probably feeling pain, and a lot of it. (Except for Malaysia. Two words: pump-priming. Do hyphenated words count separately?) After putting the market through a lot of grief, Bernanke has finally decided to stop “standing ready to act” and simply “act”. But will a 75 basis point cut do anything significant for the market. More importantly, will it stop the inevitable recession from taking root?

The last time “credit crunch” was being bandied about was in 1991.  The story is similar - housing and other asset price bubbles, with financial companies having weak balance sheets and unable to re-capitalise.  Fast-forward to 2007 and the story is similar - just replace the saving & loans crisis with the words “sub prime”.  The good news is that the crisis in 1991 was relatively mild.  US GDP Growth was down -0.7% in Q390, -3.2% in Q490 and -2.0% in Q191.

There are some important differences though.  Oil prices spiked higher in 1990 too (although to just above US$35/bbl, which must seem like a joke compared to what they are now.  Adjusted for inflation, this would roughly be around US$50+/bbl in today’s dollars.)  Also recession had come on the back of tight credit - Fed funds rates ranged from 9 to 19% at its peak in the 1980s.  [Some commentators even argued that this is what caused the recession.] The crisis today was brought about by easy credit and indeed financial innovation motivated by easy credit.

So where does this all lead us?  Not sure.  Bad news is that when credit is constricted it’s a lot less clear how effective monetary policy is, or rather, it becomes much more difficult to know how tight credit conditions really are.  The good news is that even if we are in for a recession, it probably won’t last too long.

Between a Rock and a Hard Place

An Angry BritWhile sovereign wealth funds have been racing around the world bailing out beleaguered global banks, none of them have given British bank Northern Rock a second look.  In fact, nationalisation is on the cards, although the UK government is hoping not to have to use that politically unpopular last resort.  Instead, it is hoped that private players like Goldman Sachs and Richard Branson might fly to its aid.  (As one shareholder put it, paraphrased, “I don’t want it to be called Virgin Rock or something vulgar like that.”)

I think European markets are only beginning to come to terms with how exposed they are to credit issues and a US recession.  While Asian economies are often characterised as export-led and therefore have to grapple with how ‘coupled’ they are to the US economy, Europe has always been expected to grow slowly and steadily.  And as far as SWFs are concerned, they’re clearly not as optimistic about Europe as they are about the US.

Article below.

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